Could Texans force a referendum through a petition?

Not directly, and it is important to be honest about why. Texas has no statewide citizen-initiative process. There is no number of signatures that, by itself, places a question on the statewide ballot. The path to a referendum runs through the Legislature, period. A petition is a tool of pressure on that path, not a substitute for it.

Texas is not an initiative-and-referendum state

Some states let citizens gather signatures and put a measure on the ballot over the heads of their legislators. Texas is not one of them. At the statewide level there is no ballot-initiative mechanism in Texas law. So no petition drive, however large, automatically triggers an independence referendum. Anyone who tells you a million signatures forces the vote is describing a system Texas does not have. We will not pretend otherwise. The honest answer is that the route is legislative.

Why we say this plainly

It would be easy, and dishonest, to promise a petition shortcut that does not exist. We do not do that. Where there is a legal path, it must be followed, and the legal path here is a bill passed by the Texas Legislature and signed into law, or a constitutional amendment ratified by the voters. There are no secret clauses and no back doors. Telling Texans the truth about the process is part of earning the result.

What a petition actually does

This does not make petitions worthless. Far from it. A petition is one of the clearest ways to show a legislator exactly how many of his constituents want the vote, and politicians answer to the fear of losing their seats. Names on a list, supporters on record, pledge signers, voters who will not be moved: that is the pressure that gets a bill heard, voted out of committee, and onto the floor. More than 633,000 Texans are already on record demanding the vote. That weight is real. It just works by moving the Legislature, not by bypassing it.

The power is still the people's, by a different mechanism

The thing a petition tries to capture, the will of the people overriding a reluctant government, is already guaranteed in Texas. It just runs through Article 1, Section 2 of the Texas Constitution and through the ballot box rather than through a signature drive. When the referendum passes and Texans vote, that is the people forcing the issue, in the most powerful and most legitimate way there is.

The bottom line

No petition by itself puts independence on the ballot in Texas. The path is legislative. But organized Texans, on record and turning up, are precisely how that legislation gets passed. The signatures matter. They just point at the Capitol.