How would Texas trade with Mexico and Canada?

As a country in its own right, with its own seat at the table for the first time. Texas already does enormous trade with both, more than any other state, but right now Washington negotiates the terms. Independence does not threaten that trade. It hands Texas the pen.

Texas is already the center of North American trade

This is not a relationship Texas would be building from scratch. Texas is the busiest trade gateway on the continent. Texas-Mexico two-way trade runs well over $300 billion a year by TNM's analysis, and Texas-Canada trade reached about $76 billion in 2024, making Canada Texas's second-largest partner. Laredo is now the single highest-value port of entry in the entire United States, moving about $340 billion in trade in 2024, the first land crossing ever to top the country. The trade is already here, already huge, and already flowing through Texas hands.

Today Texas does the trade but Washington sets the terms

Here is the catch in the current arrangement. Under Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution, a state cannot make its own trade agreements. So even though Texas is the country's number-one trading state, the deals that govern that trade are cut in Washington, by negotiators balancing the interests of fifty states, many of whom do not share Texas priorities. Texas carries the trade and accepts the terms. Independence reverses that. Texas would negotiate directly with Mexico and with Canada as a sovereign, for arrangements built around Texas industries rather than national averages.

The terms can carry over, then improve

Continuity comes first. An independent Texas can keep trading with Mexico and Canada on terms that mirror what exists now, through a free-trade arrangement or by operating under the World Trade Organization schedules already in place, so nothing has to seize up on day one. The live answer on trade with the United States walks through that machinery in detail. From there, Texas is free to negotiate improvements: deals shaped to Texas energy, Texas agriculture, and Texas manufacturing, instead of compromises written for the whole union.

Mexico has every reason to deal directly with Texas

Texas is Mexico's most important commercial neighbor, full stop. The Texas-Mexico border handles the majority of all U.S.-Mexico trade, and $24 million in goods cross it every hour. Mexico does not want that disrupted any more than Texas does. A direct Texas-Mexico trade relationship is in Mexico's clear economic interest, which is why continuity is the realistic expectation. The specific terms are set in negotiation, and no Mexican-government commitment is assumed here, but the incentives all point the same way: keep the busiest trade corridor in North America open.

Canada is a natural partner too

Canada and Texas already trade tens of billions a year, anchored heavily in energy, machinery, and agriculture. Canada is a stable, treaty-friendly trading nation that does business with separate countries all over the world. An independent Texas negotiating with Canada is an ordinary commercial matter between two trading partners, not a barrier, and the existing trade gives both sides a strong reason to formalize it quickly.

The bottom line

Texas already out-trades every other state with Mexico and Canada. Independence keeps that trade flowing and gives Texas, for the first time, a direct voice in the terms, instead of accepting deals written in Washington for everyone else.