Would other countries recognize an independent Texas?

Yes. Recognition is something a new nation earns through a deliberate process, and Texas begins that process from a stronger position than almost any aspiring nation in modern history.

Texas already meets the legal definition of a state

International law has a working test for what makes a country a country, set out in the Montevideo Convention of 1933: a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter relations with other states. Texas satisfies all four today, and not marginally. It has more than 30 million people, a defined territory of over a quarter-million square miles, a fully functioning government, and an economy that already does business with the world. Many nations that hold seats at the United Nations meet that test far less convincingly than Texas does.

Recognition is a process, and it starts before the vote

New nations are not recognized by accident. They lay the groundwork: diplomatic outreach, relationships with key governments and international bodies, and the quiet work of making the case abroad. That work can and should begin well before independence is final, so that recognition follows the vote quickly rather than slowly. A new Texas would pursue recognition methodically, the way successful independence efforts always have.

The economic reality pulls recognition forward

Here is what makes Texas different from a small or poor breakaway region. Texas has the world's eighth-largest economy, around $2.77 trillion, larger than that of most countries already sitting in the United Nations. It is a top global energy producer and exports to economies on every continent. Nations recognize the country that supplies their energy, buys their goods, and anchors their supply chains. The world does not ignore the eighth-largest economy on the planet. Self-interest alone ensures that trading partners move to formalize relations with an independent Texas, because the alternative is to be cut out.

The United States has reason to recognize Texas too

The most important early recognition is Washington's, and Washington's incentives point toward it. A negotiated, recognized separation keeps trade flowing, keeps the border calm, and lets both nations get on with business. Refusing to recognize a peaceful, democratic vote would isolate Washington internationally and disrupt its own economy for no gain. The practical path, the one nations almost always choose, is to recognize reality and negotiate the terms.

Holdouts cannot stop a functioning nation

Recognition does not have to be unanimous to be real. A nation exists and functions once enough key states and the major international institutions deal with it as one, and others follow over time as relationships and self-interest accumulate. A Texas that trades, governs, and conducts diplomacy is a Texas that the world treats as a country, whether or not every last holdout has sent a formal letter.

The bottom line

Texas already qualifies as a nation under international law, begins the recognition process from a position of extraordinary economic strength, and gives the world powerful reasons to formalize relations quickly. Recognition is earned, and Texas is unusually well placed to earn it.