Move 03 of 4
Win the Vote
With the bill filed and the question in front of Texans, the job becomes winning. A referendum is a simple majority of the people: 50 percent plus one.
Kill the supermajority myth first
You will be told independence needs a supermajority, or an act of Congress, or three-quarters of the states. None of it is true. A referendum needs a simple majority of the people who vote, fifty percent plus one. The only supermajority anywhere near this is inside the Legislature, on the step that bypasses the governor's signature. When someone claims otherwise, ask them to show you where the Constitution says it. The one place anyone even tried to set a higher bar was Quebec, and even there Canada's Supreme Court refused to name a number, requiring only a vague "clear majority." Texas is not a province of Canada.
Fig. 1 · The bar to clear
A referendum needs only a simple majority of the people who vote. No supermajority, no act of Congress, no three-quarters of the states.
The math of a win
Texas has about 15.8 million voters who can reliably turn out. Independence referendums average around 85 percent turnout, far above any normal Texas election, which puts roughly 13.4 million ballots in play. Fifty percent plus one of that is about 6.7 million votes to win. Polling support already sits around 60 to 66 percent, which on that turnout is roughly 8 to 8.8 million Texans, well past the line. That would be the largest single voting bloc in Texas history.
Independence also pulls people off the bench who never vote. The other side bets it will never happen, so they stay home. Do not make their mistake.
Fig. 2 · The math of a win
Projected support already clears the line to win
Win it, then prove you won it
A vote you cannot verify is a vote someone can steal. The movement that toppled Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia spent years knowing exactly who their voters were, made sure they turned out, then ran their own exit polls and published the results before the regime could fake the count. That is how you stop a steal: organize, turn out, verify.
It takes people and the means to reach them, which means tens of thousands of trained volunteers. Expect serious money to line up against us when this reaches the ballot. Greater fights have been won with far less. Play smart, play hard.
Texas First. Texas Forever.